University of Leeds Study Warns Climate Change May Destroy Two-Thirds of Temperate Rainforests by 2100

A new study by the University of Leeds warns that without action to combat climate change, nearly two-thirds of the world’s temperate rainforests could be lost by 2100. The research emphasizes the importance of preserving these critical ecosystems and offers hope through potential restoration efforts.

Up to two-thirds of the world’s temperate rainforests could be devastated by climate change by the end of this century, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Leeds. This alarming projection underscores the fragility of these unique ecosystems and the urgent need for global action to mitigate climate change.

In the first comprehensive global assessment of the impact of climate change on temperate rainforests, scientists integrated tree cover maps, forest condition data and climate models to evaluate existing human impact and future climatic pressures on these rare ecosystems.

The findings, published today in the journal Earth’s Future, reveal that under the most dire scenarios, 68% of the world’s temperate rainforests — and up to 90% in certain regions — may disappear by 2100. Conversely, meeting current commitments to reduce fossil fuel emissions could limit this loss to 23%, and immediate, more aggressive action may reduce it to just 9%.

“Unmitigated climate change is a disaster for temperate rainforest in the UK and globally, as they cannot survive the kinds of high summer temperatures which we are starting to observe more regularly and are only predicted to worsen in future climate change simulations,” lead author Ben Silver, a research fellow at the University of Leeds’ School of Earth and Environment, said in a news release.

Temperate rainforests, known for their cool and moist climates, are found in countries like Canada, the United States, Chile, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Despite covering less than 1% of the Earth’s land surface, these ecosystems are vital for their exceptional biodiversity and carbon storage capabilities, often surpassing the carbon density of forests in other regions.

The UK’s temperate rainforests, located along the western seaboard, including areas like Scotland’s west coast, North and West Wales, Devon, Cornwall, Cumbria and Northern Ireland, are particularly critical. The Woodland Trust identifies these forests as one of the most biodiverse habitats; their high humidity and stable temperatures foster unique environments for moisture-loving lichens and bryophytes (mosses and liverworts).

“All the world’s rainforests are the ‘lungs of the planet’ that must be protected and restored as natural climate solutions to avoid the worst of global overheating,” Dominick A. DellaSala, chief scientist at Wild Heritage, said in the news release. “Temperate rainforests need to take their place alongside tropical rainforests and the boreal forests of the north as strategically vital to a safe climate.”

Notably, the study found that the UK holds substantial potential for forest restoration, possessing a quarter of the world’s unforested temperate rainforest climate zone. It also identified that the UK’s existing rainforests are relatively resilient to low-to-medium future warming scenarios.

“The UK could and should be a global leader in restoration of temperate rainforests,” added co-author Dominick Spracklen, a professor of biosphere-atmosphere interactions at the University of Leeds. “New funding and bold action by large landowners are urgently needed to help deliver government targets for temperate rainforest restoration.”

The findings of this study not only illustrate the dire consequences of continued inaction but also provide a glimmer of hope that strategic and immediate actions can preserve these invaluable ecosystems for future generations.