Carbon emissions from fossil fuels have surged to record levels in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project, underscoring the urgent need for global climate action to meet Paris Agreement goals.
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have soared to unprecedented heights in 2024, reaching 37.4 billion tonnes — a 0.8% increase from the previous year, according to a new study by the Global Carbon Project. The 2024 Global Carbon Budget report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, underscores that despite international efforts to curb greenhouse gases, fossil fuel emissions show no signs of peaking.
Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, including those from land-use changes like deforestation, are projected to hit 41.6 billion tonnes this year, compared to 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023.
Over the last decade, fossil CO2 emissions have continuously risen while emissions from land-use changes have seen a general decline. However, this year marks an alarming increase in both categories, exacerbated by severe drought conditions linked to the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024.
“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a professor at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said in a news release. “Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”
In spite the troubling rise in overall emissions, there are glimmers of hope.
“Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time,” co-author Corinne Le Quéré, a Royal Society Research Professor at University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, said in the news release.
According to the report, emissions from various fossil fuels are projected to increase: coal by 0.2%, oil by 0.9% and gas by 2.4%, contributing 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions respectively.
On a national level, China’s emissions, which make up 32% of the global total, are projected to increase marginally, while the United States is expected to see a 0.6% decrease. India’s emissions are set to rise by 4.6% and the European Union is projected to see a 3.8% decline.
Furthermore, the report highlights that international aviation and shipping emissions, accounting for 3% of the global total, are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels.
“Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts,” added Friedlingstein.
The report suggests that while technology-based carbon dioxide removal solutions are progressing, they only offset a minuscule amount of emissions. Current atmospheric CO2 levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024 —52% above pre-industrial levels.
How soon will we surpass 1.5°C of global warming? The study estimates a 50% chance of consistently surpassing the 1.5°C threshold in about six years if current emission trends persist. This serves as a grim reminder that the remaining carbon budget to mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change is rapidly depleting.
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget report, a comprehensive peer-reviewed update involving over 120 scientists from 80 institutions worldwide, will be presented at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
This urgent call to action arrives as world leaders converge at COP29 to negotiate climate policies and strategies aimed at significantly reducing global CO2 emissions to combat the climate crisis.