A new study finds that a soda tax in Washington state led to a significant decrease in consumption, influenced by consumer opposition, ultimately undermining the intended tax revenue. Researchers suggest that the success of consumption taxes depends heavily on public support.
Tax policymakers commonly assume that raising taxes will increase government revenue. However, a new study focused on Washington state’s soda tax presents a more nuanced picture. The research, published in the journal Marketing Science, reveals that consumer opposition can significantly mitigate the expected revenue boost, as demonstrated in a natural experiment in Washington.
Co-authored by Andrew Ching, a professor in the Carey Business School at the Johns Hopkins University, and Daniel Goetz, an assistant professor of market at the University of Toronto Mississauga, the research highlights the complex relationship between tax policy and consumer behavior.
“We decided to investigate whether consumers’ level of agreement with a policy affects how they respond to that policy in the marketplace,” Goetz said in a news release. “So, when Washington state enacted a consumption tax on soda, that provided a natural experiment to see whether consumers who disagreed with the tax reduced their consumption, and if that had any implications for tax revenues.”
In 2010, Washington state introduced a soda tax mainly to boost government revenue, not to curb unhealthy consumer choices.
This led to a grassroots movement that eventually put the soda tax on the ballot for a voter referendum. The subsequent voter decision repealed the tax.
“We were able to use voter data along with data that measured monthly demand for soda while the tax was in place. We merged the highly localized precinct-level data for voting with consumer shopping patterns and shoppers’ home locations to create a novel measure of grocery store-level tax opposition. We then combined this with price and quantity data from grocery stores statewide,” Goetz added.
The findings were compelling.
Stores frequented by opponents of the soda tax saw a 53% greater reduction in sales of the taxed beverages compared to stores visited by tax supporters. This significant drop in consumption directly impacted the anticipated tax revenue.
“At the end of the day, the takeaway is that the effectiveness of consumption taxes in raising revenue for the government really depends on how much support there is for that tax. When opposition is strong, you may very well find that a consumption tax will raise much less than what you expected,” Ching said in the news release.
This study’s revelations carry critical implications for future tax policies. Policymakers might need to consider public sentiment more closely when designing consumption taxes to avoid unexpected consumer pushback and revenue shortfalls.