Junior Researcher Sou Shinomoto’s study at Waseda University reveals that public trust in Japan’s military dips with deviations from civilian control. This groundbreaking research provides valuable insights into civil-military relations and their impact on democracy.
In a significant stride towards understanding civil-military dynamics in established democracies, a recent study by Sou Shinomoto from Waseda University’s Institute of Political Economy uncovers vital insights into how deviations from civilian control impact public confidence in Japan’s military forces. Published in the Journal of Peace Research, Shinomoto’s research adds critical empirical evidence to a field often dominated by theoretical discussions.
The study, inspired by the intricate and politically charged relationship between civilians and military organizations, underscores the crucial balance required for a thriving democracy.
“The relationship between civilians and military organizations is intricate and politically important, which has garnered significant attention. However, discussions on this topic are frequently based on impressionistic arguments rather than careful analysis of objective, verifiable data. This gap in the literature motivated my research,” Shinomoto said in a statement.
Methodology and Key Findings
Shinomoto’s experimental study used data from an online survey conducted in November 2022 among Japanese participants. Respondents were presented with a hypothetical scenario involving a Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) unit dispatched during a fictional armed conflict between the United States and Iran. The scenario explored the impact of a commanding officer’s arbitrary action or inaction on public trust in the JSDF.
Participants revealed significantly reduced confidence in the JSDF when it violated civilian control, especially if a commander decided unilaterally to engage in battle. Conversely, there was only a slight decline in confidence when the commander chose to suspend the mission.
Interestingly, the study found that additional information about Japan’s national legislature’s (Diet) involvement did not significantly alter the participants’ confidence levels. This suggests a potential lack of faith in the Diet’s capacity to positively influence military control or its perceived importance. Furthermore, the impact of political ideology appeared minimal, pointing to a lack of strong in-group bias among Japanese participants based on their political leanings.
Context and Implications
The findings of this study offer profound implications for both domestic and international perceptions of civil-military relations. In Japan, a nation with robust defense capabilities and deep-rooted democratic values, public confidence in the military is closely tied to its adherence to civilian control. The research raises critical concerns about the stability of democratic practices, even in well-established democracies.
Moreover, Shinomoto’s study provides valuable insights into international security dynamics and the broader implications of military compliance for public trust.
“Even in Japan, which is a (supposed) established democracy, people don’t always firmly advocate for civilian control and, in turn, democracy. This raises concerns about democracy’s stability in modern society,” said Shinomoto. “Additionally, this study offers insights into international security dynamics and facilitates further understanding of how people in Japan, with its rapid development of defense capabilities, view the military’s control and evaluate this organization.”
This research underscores the importance of maintaining a transparent and accountable military structure under civilian oversight to uphold public confidence and democratic integrity.
Concluding Thoughts
Shinomoto’s work elevates the discourse on civil-military relations by providing empirical evidence from a non-U.S. context, broadening the understanding of this critical aspect of democracy. As nations continue to grapple with the balance of power between civilian authorities and military institutions, studies like these are invaluable for policymakers and scholars alike.