Researchers led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign reveal that the impact of climate change on urban heating and cooling systems is vastly underestimated, prompting the need for enhanced climate-sensitive energy planning.
Future urban energy needs could be significantly misjudged if current climate change models continue to overlook key physical interactions in urban environments, according to new research led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
In a recent study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers found that global energy projections are underestimating the impact of climate change on urban heating and cooling systems by nearly 50% by the end of the century, should greenhouse gas emissions remain high. This discrepancy underscores a critical gap in sustainable energy planning.
Led by Lei Zhao, an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, the research pivots from traditional studies, which mainly focus on chemical feedback loops. Instead, Zhao’s team emphasizes smaller-scale, city-level physical interactions between urban infrastructure and local climates.
“The heat generated from heating and cooling systems is a substantial part of the total heat generated within urban areas,” Zhao said in a news release. “These systems generate a lot of heat that is released into the atmosphere within cities, making them hotter and further increasing the demand for indoor cooling systems, which feeds even more heat into local climates.”
This cycle, known as a positive physical feedback loop, exacerbates the warming of urban environments due to increased energy consumption for cooling. Conversely, Zhao’s study also identifies a potential negative feedback loop, where rising temperatures could reduce heating demand in winter, thereby decreasing urban heat output.
“This process forms a negative physical feedback loop that may dampen the heating demand decrease,” Zhao added. “But it does not by any means cancel out the positive feedback loop effect. Instead, our model suggests that it could polarize the seasonal electricity demand, which poses its own set of problems for which careful planning is needed.”
To capture these crucial, often-overlooked physical contributions, Zhao’s team employed a hybrid modeling framework. This innovative approach combines dynamic Earth system modeling with machine learning to analyze global urban heating and cooling energy demand in the face of urban climate change variability and uncertainties.
The study highlights the importance of diverse urban variables – including income, infrastructure, population density, technology and temperature tolerance – in accurately projecting future energy demands.
“I think the take-home message for this study is that energy projections that integrate the effects of positive and negative physical feedback loops are needed and will lay the groundwork for more comprehensive climate impact assessment, science-based policymaking and coordination on climate-sensitive energy planning,” added Zhao.
The significance of this research extends beyond academics; it provides a stepping stone for policymakers to enhance climate-sensitive energy strategies. The team’s ongoing work aims to refine these models further by incorporating other variables like humidity, building materials and potential climate mitigation efforts.
Supported by the National Science Foundation and the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, this research points towards a future where urban energy planning is not just about managing consumption but also mitigating climate impact.