A new study reveals that without significant emission cuts, up to 70% of the world’s population will experience rapid and severe changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall by 2044. The findings highlight the urgent need for climate action to mitigate unprecedented weather conditions and protect vulnerable communities worldwide.
Nearly three-quarters of the world’s population could face robust and swift changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall in the next 20 years unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced, according to a compelling new study.
Led by the CICERO Center for International Climate Research and supported by the University of Reading, this significant research shows that extreme weather risks will impact 20% of the population even if emissions are curbed to meet the Paris Agreement’s targets, compared to a staggering 70% if minimal actions are taken.
Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the study illustrates how global warming interacts with typical weather variations, causing decade-long periods of rapid changes in both extreme temperatures and rainfall.
“We focus on regional changes, due to their increased relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared with the global mean, and identify regions projected to experience substantial changes in rates of one or more extreme event indices over the coming decades,” Carley Iles, the study’s lead author from CICERO, said in a news release.
The researchers conducted extensive climate model simulations, revealing that vast areas of the tropics and subtropics, home to 70% of the current global population, are likely to experience strong combined rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years if emissions remain high.
With substantial emissions mitigation, this number could drop to around 20%, approximately 1.5 billion people.
These rapid changes heighten the risk of unprecedented conditions and extreme events, which currently comprise a disproportionate share of climate change impacts. For instance, heatwaves can lead to severe heat stress and increased mortality for both humans and livestock, stress ecosystems, shrink agricultural yields, disrupt cooling for power plants and impede transport.
Similarly, extreme precipitation can cause flooding, damage infrastructure and crops, increase erosion and degrade water quality. Societies are particularly vulnerable when facing multiple hazards simultaneously.
Co-author Laura Wilcox, an associate professor of aerosol-climate interactions at the University of Reading, also pointed out the clean-up risks involved.
“We also find that rapid clean-up of air pollution, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons,” she said in the news release. “While cleaning the air is critical for health reasons, air pollution has also masked some of the effects of global warming. Now, the necessary cleanup may combine with global warming and give very strong changes in extreme conditions over the coming decades.”