In a groundbreaking study, researchers from UC Berkeley and UC Santa Barbara have identified four key policies that could reduce global plastic waste by 91% and cut plastic-related greenhouse gases by a third by 2050. These findings come ahead of critical international negotiations on plastic pollution.
A transformative study published in the Science journal highlights that enforcing four specific global policies could drastically cut mismanaged plastic waste by 91% and reduce plastic-related carbon emissions by a third by 2050. These policies include mandating that new products contain 40% post-consumer recycled plastic, capping plastic production at 2020 levels, investing heavily in waste management infrastructure and imposing a small fee on plastic packaging.
The research, a collaboration between the University of California, Berkeley and the University of California, Santa Barbara, could shape the discussions at the upcoming Global Plastics Treaty negotiations in Busan, Republic of Korea.
“This is it. These upcoming negotiations in Busan are our one chance to come together as a planet and fix this problem,” co-author Douglas McCauley, a professor of marine ecology at UCSB and director of the university’s Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory (BOSL), said in a news release. “One of the most exciting discoveries in this research is that it is actually possible to nearly end plastic pollution with this Treaty. I’m cautiously optimistic, but we can’t squander this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”
The study, titled “Pathways to Reduce Global Plastic Waste Mismanagement and Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050,” indicates that without significant policy changes, the annual consumption of plastic will surge by 37% from 2020 to 2050, doubling the plastic pollution problem.
Roland Geyer, a professor of industrial ecology at UC Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science & Management and a co-author of the study, emphasized the importance of the findings.
“This study demonstrates how far we have come in not just quantifying the manifold problems surrounding plastics, but also in identifying and evaluating potential solutions,” he said in the news release. “I am very proud of what our team was able to achieve in time for the final round of negotiations for the Global Plastics Treaty.”
To illustrate the severity of unchecked plastic pollution, the study estimates that from 2011 to 2050, the accumulated plastic waste could cover Manhattan 10 times the height of the Empire State Building.
Also, without intervention, greenhouse gas emissions from plastic could spike 37%, equating to the output of almost 9,000 natural gas power plants or the energy use of over 436 million homes annually.
Sam Pottinger, a senior research data scientist at the Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center for Data Science and Environment at UC Berkeley, stressed the need for data-driven policymaking.
“There are multiple pathways available to negotiators, but it does require ambition,” he added. “The impact that we’re really hoping to see on the treaty is that it is data-informed. As the treaty comes to its final conclusion before ratification, we want folks to be aware of how much progress they’ve actually made, at least according to the best science that we have available right now.”
Nivedita Biyani, a researcher on global plastic modeling at UC Santa Barbara’s Benioff Ocean Science Laboratory, shared her optimism.
“This policy work shows that we can reach minimal mismanaged plastic waste if we can come together in action,” she added. “This provides policymakers with a novel tool that isn’t prescriptive — they can combine various policies as they see fit. Going forward, I think a mechanism to gather data on plastic production and trade will be a key factor. We need supply chain transparency here.”
The study is underpinned by an AI-generated tool that employs machine learning to analyze data on population growth and economic trends to predict future plastic production, pollution and trade scenarios.
The upcoming negotiations in Busan may prove to be a turning point for global plastic pollution policy. With insights from advanced scientific research and data-driven recommendations, there is a burgeoning hope that the world can move towards a sustainable, plastic-free future.