Scientists from NSF NCAR have discovered that social media can be a powerful tool in communicating the dangers posed by hurricanes. By analyzing Twitter data from Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, they identified key ways to improve public engagement and understanding through strategic use of visuals.
In a new revelation with significant implications for public safety, researchers have found that social media can be a crucial tool for conveying the hazards associated with hurricanes more effectively. Scientists from the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) examined Twitter (now X) activity during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017 and uncovered strategies for better communicating threats during the early stages of storm development.
“When we began this research, a lot of work had been done analyzing Twitter data in the post-disaster space, and we were interested in how people were responding to weather forecast information in earlier stages, especially as predictions change,” NSF NCAR scientist Rebecca Morss, lead author of the Hurricane Harvey study, said in a statement. “Twitter provided a natural laboratory for us to look at what communications people are responding to and what information they are sharing. This kind of research can help the meteorological community learn what are the most important things to communicate and how to improve that messaging.”
Risk Information Ecosystem
The NSF NCAR team analyzed tweets related to the rapid intensification and subsequent flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey, as well as the more predictable but still damaging trajectory of Hurricane Irma. By categorizing tweets based on visual content, the researchers were able to determine what types of images garnered the most engagement and how these visuals influenced public reaction to forecast information.
“In early stages of the threat, we could see a really clear cadence that every six hours there would be an uptick in Twitter conversation about the hurricanes,” NSF NCAR scientist Robert Prestley, lead author of the Hurricane Irma paper, said in the statement. “This was driven by the National Hurricane Center putting out updated forecast information. That information would then be redistributed by broadcast meteorologists, emergency managers, news media and weather enthusiasts, and the conversation would grow from there. It really highlighted the key role of the National Weather Service in leading this communication.”
Viral Visuals and Communication Strategies
One significant finding was the prominent role of the “cone of uncertainty” graphic, which indicates the probable path of a storm. Despite its popularity, the cone has limitations in conveying risks to areas outside its outline. Researchers identified this as a critical area for improvement in visual communication.
“There’s a clear need for better uncertainty visualizations, especially in the forecast and warning period when people are looking for information, but there’s not yet enough certainty to say specifically where or what the impacts will be,” added Prestley.
Additionally, the research highlighted the varied impact of different image types. During Hurricane Harvey, images focusing on rainfall and flooding received high engagement, suggesting that tailoring visuals to specific aspects of a storm’s threat can be effective. In comparison, standard watch and warning images, often automated and less engaging, saw minimal interaction.
While X’s role in the immediate communication of disaster information remains pivotal, the research suggests that ongoing improvements in the way natural disaster information is presented could make a significant difference in public preparedness and response. The NSF NCAR researchers continue to build on these findings through additional studies involving surveys and real-time data collection before, during and after weather events.
The knowledge gained from this research can help meteorologists, emergency managers and other professionals enhance their use of social media to better serve and protect communities in the face of natural disasters.
The NSF NCAR research is published in the journal Natural Hazards Review.