MIT researchers have developed a novel way to understand the personal impact of climate change by assessing “outdoor days.” Their study reveals significant regional changes and potential economic effects, particularly in the Southeast U.S.
Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have introduced a novel method for quantifying the direct impact of climate change on daily life in the United States by examining “outdoor days.” This innovative approach focuses on the number of days per year when the temperature is conducive to outdoor activities, such as walking, gardening or dining al fresco, rather than on global temperature averages.
In their recent study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers applied this method to different regions across the United States, revealing significant regional disparities in how climate change will affect outdoor days.
“This is something very new in our attempt to understand impacts of climate change impact, in addition to the changing extremes,” Yeon-Woo Choi, a postdoctoral researcher at MIT, said in a news release.
This new perspective allows individuals to comprehend the personalized impacts of global climate changes, moving beyond extreme events like hurricanes or wildfires.
The researchers evaluated two climate scenarios: one assuming maximum efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and a “worst case” scenario where emissions continue unchecked. Each scenario was tested using 32 global climate models, yielding consistent results across the board.
According to Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at MIT, the reality may fall somewhere between these two extremes.
“I don’t think we’re going to act as aggressively” or be “as careless” as the two scenarios suggest, he said in the news release, predicting a middle-ground outcome by the century’s end.
The study found that the Southeastern United States, including states like Florida, may experience a significant drop in the number of outdoor days due to increasing temperatures.
“It seems like climate change is going to have a significant impact on the Southeast in terms of reducing the number of outdoor days,” Eltahir added, highlighting potential ramifications for the region’s quality of life, tourism and retirement appeal.
Conversely, the Northwest might see a modest increase in outdoor days, with projections suggesting about a 14% rise for the final three decades of this century compared to 1976-2005. Meanwhile, the Southwestern United States could face a 23% decrease in outdoor days.
By analyzing historical data and projections, the study also identified shifts in the seasonal distribution of outdoor days. Currently, most areas enjoy the majority of outdoor days in the summer, but hotter summers may push peak outdoor times to spring and fall, reflecting a pattern already observed in Florida.
To make these insights accessible, the researchers developed an online tool allowing users to define their comfort range for outdoor activities and see personalized predictions.
“If you disagree with how we define an outdoor day, you could define one for yourself,” Eltahir added, emphasizing the tool’s adaptability.
This approach was inspired by the observation that many perceive climate change as a distant or external issue.
Eltahir hopes that bringing the concept of “outdoor days” closer to home will foster a better understanding of climate change’s immediate impact, encouraging more proactive and science-based policy measures.
“I hope that people will find that useful to bridge that gap… And hopefully, that would help lead to sound policies that are based on science, regarding climate change,” he added.