A collaboration between researchers from Florida State University and South Korea has led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasting, incorporating sea spray data into predictive models. This breakthrough promises to refine future forecasts and better prepare communities for storm impacts.
A collaboration between researchers from Florida State University (FSU) and South Korea is poised to revolutionize the accuracy of hurricane forecasts. By integrating the effects of sea spray into predictive models, this breakthrough promises to transform future hurricane intensity predictions, a crucial factor for preparedness and response.
The groundbreaking research, published in Environmental Research Letters, addresses longstanding challenges in hurricane intensity forecasting. While predicting hurricane tracks has seen notable advancements, accurately forecasting a storm’s intensity has remained elusive. This new study offers a promising solution.
“We know forecasts predicting hurricane tracks are pretty good most of the time, but the intensity forecasts have traditionally not been as good, and we’re trying to figure out why,” co-author Mark Bourassa, a professor in the FSU Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, said in a news release.
Hurricanes gather energy as they churn through the ocean, with winds and waves dispersing tiny droplets of water — known as sea spray — into the air. As these warm droplets evaporate, they release heat and moisture, fueling the storm.
This study analyzed data from probes deployed by hurricane hunter airplanes and discovered that significantly more thermal energy was being transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere than previously thought.
“It’s an amazing amount of energy that we’ve been missing in these storms,” Bourassa added. “When we incorporated data showing how sea spray changes the flow of heat and moisture in a storm, we found that intensity forecasts were remarkably better than they were when we ran the same model without that single change.”
Traditionally, studies on sea spray and hurricane intensification used proxy measurements like wind speed to approximate sea spray’s impact. However, these simplifications often failed to capture how sea spray could enhance the energy fueling the storms, especially for wind speeds surpassing 20 meters per second.
The collaborative effort resulted in a weather model that included a wave model to improve the accuracy of sea spray production and its impact on heat and moisture transfer to the atmosphere. The improved modeling provided more reliable intensity forecasts.
To validate their findings, the research team examined four major Atlantic hurricanes — Ian (2022), Ida (2021), Michael (2018) and Harvey (2017) — all of which caused considerable damage in the United States. The researchers also analyzed four significant Pacific Ocean typhoons with the help of their South Korean counterparts.
The enhanced understanding of sea spray mechanics not only promises to improve intensity forecasts but also lays the groundwork for future research, particularly focusing on the rapid intensification of storms. This insight is vital for improving preparedness and can potentially save lives and reduce damage in hurricane-prone areas.
Incorporating these new insights into operational hurricane forecasting models marks a significant advancement in meteorology, offering communities better tools to prepare for the ravages of future storms.