Researchers are proposing a shift from GDP to a resilience index as a policy measure. The new index could help humanity operate within sustainable ecological limits and address pressing global challenges.
Researchers from the University of Southampton, University College London (UCL) and the University of East Anglia are calling for a revolutionary shift in how we measure policy success. In a paper published today in One Earth, they argue that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which has long been the benchmark, fails to account for the broader implications of development and sustainability. Instead, they propose a resilience index that assesses a system’s ability to withstand and adapt to disturbances, thereby ensuring human activity stays within the planet’s “safe operating space.”
“Resilience is about the ability of a system to prepare for, resist, recover and adapt to disturbances in order to function successfully,” lead author Ian Townend, a professor at the University of Southampton, said in a news release. “This invites us to take a more holistic view, accommodating both human and natural components of complex systems that extend across environmental, social and economic domains.”
The Need for a New Metric
First adopted during the Great Depression of the 1930s, GDP has been the cornerstone of economic policy for decades. However, the mounting pressures of climate change, biodiversity loss and resource depletion have highlighted its inadequacies in addressing our planet’s finite resources.
The researchers propose a “safe operating space” concept that combines an adequate social foundation with sustainable ecological limits, also known as planetary boundaries.
“As we encroach on planetary boundaries, the number of organisms an ecosystem can support is reduced,” Townend added. “Similarly, if we don’t address inequality, embark on conflict or suffer major disasters, our social foundations are diminished.”
The researchers posit that a resilience index can provide a more comprehensive measure to navigate these challenges.
Impact on Policy Decisions
“Often what we can measure is what gets done, so it’s important to provide a quantitative measure of resilience at local, national and global scales,” co-author Jon French, a professor in environmental systems modeling at UCL, said in the news release.
This metric would incorporate value judgments, allowing society to capture diverse perspectives and making it easier for decision-makers to navigate trade-offs between social, environmental and economic domains.
As part of their research, the team illustrated how a resilience index might work both nationally and globally.
For instance, the University of Southampton has developed a model to index the resilience of England’s coastal communities. This model allows stakeholders, including local governments and businesses, to weigh different priorities, such as human health, economic impact or habitat preservation.
On a global scale, using existing data sets, the team indexed the resilience of 132 countries between 1992 and 2015. The results showed a trend where progress in social measures often came at the expense of biophysical ones.
Future Directions
“We urgently need to think about how we mobilize a global change in outlook,” added co-author Robert Nicholls, a professor of climate adaptation and director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia. “That means moving away from the focus on GDP to measures that track the challenges we face to meet societal needs and recognize that these are inextricably linked to the needs of all life on earth.”
The researchers believe that further development of resilience index models could enhance or even replace traditional performance metrics like GDP. This paradigm shift could lead to more sustainable and balanced policy decisions, ensuring that human progress does not come at the expense of our planet’s health.