A new MIT study reveals a shift in U.S. energy poverty from heating in colder regions to air conditioning in the South, driven by climate change. Current federal aid programs are outdated and misaligned with these changes, the researchers suggest adjustments to better support energy-burdened households.
Climate change is altering the geography of energy poverty in the United States, increasingly burdening households in the South and Southwest that rely heavily on air conditioning, according to a new study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The research, published in Science Advances, calls for an overhaul of federal energy assistance programs to address this evolving need.
The study conducted by MIT scholars reveals that the “energy burden” — the percentage of income dedicated to essential energy needs — has shifted geographically from 2015 to 2020. The energy burden threshold for being in “energy poverty” is defined as spending more than 6% of income on energy costs.
The research underscores that rising temperatures in the southern United States exacerbate financial strains as air conditioning becomes a necessity, while milder winters in northern regions reduce heating expenses.
“From 2015 to 2020, there is an increase in burden generally, and you do also see this southern shift,” co-author Christopher Knittel, the George P. Shultz Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and associate dean for climate and sustainability at MIT, said in a news release.
And he pointed out that federal aid doesn’t align with the energy burden.
“When you compare the distribution of the energy burden to where the money is going, it’s not aligned too well,” he added.
The study analyzed data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey and the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. It estimated the average household energy burden for every census tract in the lower 48 states between 2015 and 2020, uncovering a significant shift in energy burden towards southern states.
By 2020, the states with the highest energy burden were Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia and Maine. This marks a stark contrast from 2015, wherein colder states like Maine and Vermont topped the list. Additionally, urban areas showed a decrease in energy poverty, dropping from 23% of the highest-burdened census tracts in 2015 to 14% in 2020, indicating a notable urban-rural shift.
“Who’s going to be harmed most from climate change?” Knittel added. “In the United States, not surprisingly, it’s going to be the southern part of the United States. And our study is confirming that, but also suggesting it’s the southern part of the United States that’s least able to respond. If you’re already burdened, the burden’s growing.”
The implications for federal aid are substantial.
The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), established in 1981 and updated in 1984 to include cooling needs, remains rooted in outdated data. The researchers argue that the formula determining aid distribution has not kept pace with shifting energy burdens due to climatic changes.
“The way Congress uses formulas set in the 1980s keeps funding distributions nearly the same as it was in the 1980s,” Peter Heller, a recent graduate of the MIT Technology and Policy Program, said in the news release. “Our paper illustrates the shift in need that has occurred over the decades since then.”
Reforming LIHEAP to match the current landscape of energy poverty would require significant restructuring. The study suggests a new funding model ensuring no household incurs an energy burden over 20.3%, redistributing subsidies to align with present-day needs more equitably.
“We think that’s probably the most equitable way to allocate the money,” Knittel added. “So that no one state is worse off than the others.”
This groundbreaking analysis not only highlights the critical need for updating federal aid programs but also underscores the broader implications of climate change on energy consumption and economic stability in vulnerable regions. As temperatures rise, addressing the shifting dynamics of energy poverty becomes ever more critical to support the most burdened households effectively.