A recent survey of climate experts highlights the alarming potential for global temperature increases while also showing positive signs towards achieving significant emissions reduction goals.
In a recent study published in Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, climate scientists have voiced concerns about the Earth’s trajectory towards potentially catastrophic global warming. The researchers surveyed 211 climate experts, many of whom contribute to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to gauge their perceptions of future climate outcomes and mitigation efforts.
The survey revealed a prevailing belief among the scientific community that the Earth is likely to exceed the targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 to well-below 2 degrees Celsius.
Lead author Seth Wynes, a former postdoctoral fellow at Concordia and currently an assistant professor at the University of Waterloo, emphasized the goal was to gather insights from top climate experts about their views on future climate scenarios.
“We wanted to survey some of the top climate experts in the world to get some insight into their perceptions of different future climate outcomes,” Wynes said in a news release.
While the overall outlook was pessimistic — with 86% of respondents estimating warming above 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 and a median estimate pointing to a 2.7 degrees Celsius rise — there was also a glimmer of optimism.
Two-thirds of the surveyed experts believe that achieving net-zero CO2 emissions is possible during the second half of this century. This optimism suggests that ongoing mitigation efforts may eventually curb emissions enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
Damon Matthews, a co-author of the study and a professor at Concordia University’s Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, clarified the nature of the findings.
“These responses are not a prediction of future warming, but rather a gauge of what the scientific community believes,” he said in the news release.
Matthews explained that the estimates align with previous projections of 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius warming if current climate policies persist without substantial changes.
Another key finding was the potential role of CO2 removal technologies, with the median response indicating a belief that such technologies could remove up to five gigatons of CO2 per year by 2050. Although this figure is at the lower end of what is necessary to meet the Paris targets, it indicates a potential pathway for mitigating climate change impacts.
The survey also explored the correlation between individual beliefs and perceived peer opinions.
Wynes observed that there was strong alignment, suggesting a bias where scientists may overestimate the consensus on their views.
“They had a bias to see their beliefs as representative of the larger group,” Wynes added.
Matthews, who is an IPCC author, pointed out the importance of broad perspectives in addressing climate change.
“Climate scientists certainly have expertise in climate systems and energy transitions, but it will be policy implementation and societal change that actually determine how quickly emissions drop,” he added.