A University of Michigan study has identified regions in the U.S. where flood risks, social vulnerabilities and climate change denial combine to create a “triple exposure” to disaster. Researchers highlight the urgent need for education and policy changes to improve preparedness in these high-risk areas.
In a recent study, researchers from the University of Michigan’s School for Environment and Sustainability have identified a dangerous intersection of flood risk, social vulnerability and climate change skepticism in several U.S. regions, particularly in Appalachia, New England and the Northwest.
This phenomenon, termed “triple exposure,” poses a severe challenge to communities already struggling to prepare for and respond to flooding events.
“It’s a very worrying confluence that does keep me up,” senior author Joshua Newell, a professor at the university’s Center for Sustainable Systems, said in a news release. “The communities that are most at risk of catastrophic flooding are the least prepared and the least likely to get prepared.”
The research reveals that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk assessments have significantly underestimated dangers in numerous counties nationwide. Coupled with social vulnerabilities such as low income and mobility limitations, these inaccurate assessments impair the ability of residents to take preventive actions, evacuate before floods and recover post-disaster.
Another critical aspect of triple exposure is the pervasive skepticism about climate change in certain areas, which hinders preparedness and response efforts.
“It’s not just the flooding, it’s not only that it’s affecting socially vulnerable populations, there is also an extra layer of vulnerability in that people are unprepared and unaware of the risk they are facing,” co-author Dimitrios Gounaridis, a U-M research specialist, said in the news release.
The study, which was nearing publication during Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact on Appalachia, highlights the real-time importance of these findings.
“Unfortunately, this paper has become timely,” Gounaridis added.
The aftermath of Hurricane Helene demonstrated the researchers’ concerns, as areas like Asheville, North Carolina, experienced severe flooding.
“Asheville was supposed to be a climate haven,” added Newell, referring to its perceived insulation from extreme climate impacts. “It’s clear from our paper that it, or at least the region around it, is not. I think this really highlights the need for preparation in these high-risk areas and the urgency of doing that work.”
To identify areas facing triple exposure, the research team utilized a sophisticated approach, integrating data from a national Yale University survey on climate attitudes, a federal social vulnerability index and household-level flood risk assessments from the First Street Foundation, which offers more accurate predictions compared to FEMA’s models.
This comprehensive analysis not only pinpointed the regions at heightened risk but also suggested strategies for enhancing community resilience and preparedness.
“That could be education campaigns to help folks better understand climate change or policies that help lift people out of poverty so they can have the extra funds in their pockets to evacuate or rebuild after a disaster,” added Wanja Waweru, who contributed to the project while earning her master’s degree at U-M. “I think agencies and organizations in these areas should continue their efforts to help folks understand their risks. Hopefully, this research can illuminate ways to meet them where they are.”
The study underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions in regions with triple exposure to mitigate the compounded threats of flood risk, social vulnerability and climate change denial.